Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Denver Post Helps Partisan Pollsters Fool You




The Denver Post’s Kevin Simpson reports on an original market research from GOP-aligned polling solid Magellan Strategies. Not surprisingly, this market research shows this year’s teach finance initiative, Amendment 66, in “serious discontent.”


A survey by Louisville-based Magellan Strategies found with the aim of lone 7 percent of 600 likely voters assumed they were “extremely informed” in the region of the anticipated amendment, which would revise the way education funds are parceled dazed to teach districts and situate more money with respect to stretched out crиche, kindergarten, at-risk students and English-language learners.
Focusing on the blame ramifications, which would provide means for a two-step state takings blame strengthen, the market research asked two questions. First, it asked single with token in sequence in the region of the amendment and at that moment a back up question with more detailed in sequence in the region of the anticipated original blame edifice.

In the broad-spectrum question, 44 percent indicated they would oppose the gauge, compared with 38 percent in support and 18 percent undecided.
In the margin next to the gauge widened with the more detailed question, as 52 percent assumed they conflicting it to 38 percent in support and 10 percent undecided. [Pols emphasis]

Sounds pretty bad meant for the teach finance initiative, doesn’t it? That’s in great part of the reason that the Post didn’t tell its readers no matter which in the region of who made this market research, or come again? It in point of fact asked in the way of questions. For with the aim of to a certain extent most important part of the story, we ought to walk to FOX 31′s Eli Stokols:


 he results themselves aren’t quite as meek as Coloradans meant for Real Education Reform, the site with the aim of paid meant for the market research, argue.
First inedible, the team weighting minute for this survey is set to 39% Republican, 34% Democrat and 27% unaffiliated — Magellan calls it a “good projection of 2013 turnout demographics”, and it could well be.
Initially, as soon as respondents were asked in the region of Amendment 66 exclusive of being told more in the region to come again? It does, the initiative is down by a 52-33 percent margin with men.
But, women supported it by a 42-37 percent margin and Hispanics favored it by a 53-34 percent margin…


The same as Stokols takes the point in time to explain someplace the Post didn’t, this market research was more or a lesser amount of engineered to make the product sought by opponents of Amendment 66. Magellan claims with the aim of after voter suit “informed” in the region of the initiative, support meant for Amendment 66 drops across the board–but the “additional information” agreed in this market research says nothing in the region of come again? The money would be spent on. Not even with the aim of it’s an education initiative by the side of all! Naturally, if your “additional information” consists solely of how much more intimates will forfeit, exclusive of as well as no matter which in the region of come again? They’re paying meant for, it’s not vacant to be standard very auspicious. Proponents understand with the aim of their winner depends on come again? Voters will find meaning for their money, someplace opponents geographically lone poverty to parley in the region of the cost.

Kudos to Eli Stokols meant for asking the very basic questions with the aim of dramatically coins the story of this market research. Magellan Strategies, meant for context, in addition predicted with the aim of Ryan Frazier would defeat Ed Perlmutter in 2010, and Magellan first in command David Flaherty even predicted with the aim of time with the aim of Tom Tancredo “will suit Colorado’s subsequently manager.” Safe to say, their track chronicle is varied by the side of the top
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